Bracknagh and Shamrocks target big Offaly SFC upsets

THE Tullamore Court Hotel Senior Football Championship will move into the business end of affairs when the two quarter-finals take place next weekend, with Tullamore and Edenderry awaiting the winners in the semi-finals.

The underdogs, Bracknagh and Shamrocks will face Rhode and Ferbane in the two quarter-finals and will be targeting big upsets, with Shamrocks' prospects the more realistic of the two.

Bracknagh v Rhode: Saturday, September 27 in O'Connor Park 4.30pm

While Rhode's opening round loss to Edenderry raised all sorts of questions and some of those remain valid, it will be the shock of the year if their championship ambitions are ended by Bracknagh in the first of the two quarter-finals on Saturday.

Rhode have done very well to recover from that first round mauling, getting their season back on track with a dramatic late win over Ferbane and sealing their quarter-final place with a win over Ballycommon.

An unsatisfactory walkover by Durrow in their last group game means that Rhode will have gone a month without a championship game by the time the ball is thrown in here and that would normally be an issue for them. Durrow did Rhode a disservice by not fielding that day, though this was not their fault as the bulk of their dual players opted out.

In this case, it should not be too detrimental to them and Bracknagh just don't look to be going well enough to pull it off here. Their win over Clonbullogue secured their quarter-final place and while this meant their last group game against Shamrocks was a dead rubber, the nature of Bracknagh's performance in a 4-18 to 2-11 loss was just not good.

It sends them into the quarter-final in a very fragile place and they face a massive task to turn their season around. Bracknagh will perform better here and have nothing to lose now. While he has ended his county career, Peter Cunningham remains one of the best, most dangerous footballers in Offaly but one man won't beat Rhode and they need a dramatic all round improvement.

Could Rhode have an off day and be caught? They could and that is not impossible but it is highly unlikely. Their fitness levels have improved considerably from the first round, when they probably just got a lot of things wrong, and they are motoring well, determined to win one more championship. Rhode are now very dangerous, well capable of winning the Dowling Cup agains and with the forwards to hurt any team – they have to get their back line right to do that and Bracknagh have forwards to put them under pressure.

Rhode's ambitions will be put properly to the test in the semi-final but they should get there.

Verdict – Rhode.

Ferbane v Shamrocks: Sunday, September 28 in O'Connor Park 4pm

Shamrocks' prospects of an upset certainly look to be the strongest in the two quarter-finals on this weekend but they are also in the long shot bracket and have considerable improving to do to get to the semi-finals.

The Rahan parish side do have a chance though, even if it is an outside one. Bracknagh's prospects are in the 25-30% range while Shamrocks are around 40%, maybe a bit higher. They have a strong back bone, plenty of physical players and two marquee forwards in Jack Bryant and Nigel Dunne – Dunne's pace may be going and O'Connor Park will always highlight those type of things but he remains one of the most natural, gifted scorers in Offaly and under the new rules, he will get his share of shots off.

You have to be a decent player to make the Shamrocks team and Ferbane will certainly not be taking anything for granted. Shamrocks beat them in the group stages last year while Ferbane were comfortable enough winners when they clashed again in the semi-finals, 2-13 to 2-7.

After suffering agonising defeats to Tullamore in the last two county finals, Ferbane have not captured their best form yet and look to have slipped back a bit. The time to click is the quarter-finals and it will be very interesting to see how they perform here. The impression remains that Ferbane are the biggest threat to Tullamore's three in a row ambitions but they haven't shown that yet and have to do so now.

Shamrocks is an ideal game for them. They will have to perform and play well to win and if they do get over it, they could develop into a serious force. They do have injury worries with David Nally a doubt while Oisin Kelly has returned from America but is carrying an injury. Shamrocks also have their problems. Paddy Dunican is out for the season, David O'Toole-Greene is in bother with a shoulder injury, though he came on in their intermediate hurling semi-final defeat by Birr and should be able to play a part. Kieran Dolan went off with an injured ankle against Bracknagh – he was on crutches early last week and while it is not a very serious injury, this game will probably come too soon for him.

Ferbane can cushion absentees better than Shamrocks who just don't have the pool of players to deal with the loss of first team players. Andrew Delaney has returned, his form against Bracknagh was a real plus and he is likely to form a strong half forward line with Shane O'Toole-Greene and David O'Rourke, though one of them could have to be pushed back to centre half back to fill Kieran Dolan's vacancy.

The problem that Shamrocks face is that even if Ferbane have regressed, Shamrocks haven't really progressed from last year. They had comfortable wins over Clonbullogue and Bracknagh but a heavy defeat by Tullamore really undermined their confidence and any illusions they had about their potential.

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Shamrocks will give a good account of themselves here and they have an outside chance. At the same time, their display against Bracknagh won't beat Ferbane, irrespective of what the 4-18 to 2-11 scoreline may suggest. A Shamrocks win would probably need a Ferbane off day, which is possible but at the moment, all the indicators point to Ferbane making another semi-final.

Verdict – Ferbane.