Dail expansion could hand Offaly third TD

OFFALY will gain an extra TD if the commission reviewing the Dail constituencies follows advice given to it in the last couple of months.

The Electoral Commission has received numerous submissions recommending that Laois-Offaly, currently a five-seat constituency, become instead two separate three-seaters.

In the 2020 election voters elected three TDs in Laois, Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael), Sean Fleming (Fianna Fail) and Brian Stanley (Sinn Fein) but just two in Offaly, Barry Cowen (Fianna Fail) and Carol Nolan (Independent).

All five had also been elected in the 2016 general election when Offaly and Laois were split in two and had three TDs each. The sixth winner that year, Offaly's Fine Gael candidate, Marcella Corcoran Kennedy, lost her seat in 2020.

The candidate who finished sixth in the last count in 2020 was the Green Party's Pippa Hackett and though she was subsequently elected to the senate and then appointed a junior minister, she will be under pressure to perform as well in the next election, which is due in early 2025 at the latest.

While opinion polls point to a Green collapse nationally they also indicate a record vote for Sinn Fein but its former TD in Offaly, Deputy Nolan, is no longer a member because of her anti-abortion position. Both of Sinn Fein's two council area poll toppers, Brendan Killeavy in Tullamore and Martin O'Reilly from Daingean, resigned their seats before the 2019 local elections and the party now has no councillors in Offaly.

Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and non-party representatives will also target the third seat. On a very good day for Fine Gael, the party could repeat its success of 2016, an election which was unusual in that it saw two TDs returned from the south of the county, Deputy Nolan and Ms Corcoran Kennedy. Kinnitty councillor John Clendennen might seek a nomination.

Despite the party's poll ratings, Fianna Fail will see Barry Cowen as their racing certainty for a return to the Dail but they will have to decide on a running mate. Geographical and population considerations would again make a north Offaly candidate the most likely choice, with Cllr Eddie Fitzpatrick the front runner for a place on the ballot paper. He was only 170 votes behind Deputy Nolan in the last count in 2016. That said, Shinrone councillor Peter Ormond may still have ambitions for a Dail run.

A guaranteed three seats in Offaly might also influence the pre-election thinking of some previously unsuccessful Dail candidates who are still members of the County Council, the Independent representatives John Foley, John Leahy and Ken Smollen.

Banagher Social Democrats councillor Claire Claffey has indicated she may seek a seat too.

Because of continuing population growth, the Electoral Commission is conducting a review of all constituencies in Ireland and the Dail will have to increase from its current compliment of 160 seats to between 171 and 181.

The five-seat constituency of Laois-Offaly was a near constant in the electoral arrangements from the foundation of the State but population increases in recent decades put that tradition under pressure and Aghancon, Barna, Cangort, Cullenwaine, Dunkerrin, Ettagh, Gorteen, Mountheaton, Shinrone, Templeharry in south Offaly moved to three-seat North Tipperary for the 2011 election.

Laois-Offaly was divided for the first time in the general election of 2016 but the three-seat constituency of Offaly comprised the entire county, plus the Tipperary electoral divisions of Aglishcloghane, Ballingarry, Ballylusky, Borrisokane, Carrig, Cloghjordan, Cloghprior, Clohaskin, Finnoe, Graigue, Kilbarron, Lorrha East, Lorrha West, Mertonhall, Rathcabban, Redwood, Riverstown, Terryglass, Uskane, Ardcrony, Ballygibbon, Ballymackey, Knigh and Monsea.

An independent councillor from north Tipperary, the Kilbarron publican Joe Hannigan, decided to run in the expanded Offaly constituency and was third in the first count but missed out on taking a seat. The teacher and councillor from Cadamstown, Carol Nolan, at the time a Sinn Fein representative, was the new TD elected.

The transfer of part of Lower Ormond to Offaly caused uproar in Tipperary at the time and for the 2020 election the constituency of Laois-Offaly was reinstated. All six outgoing TDs sought re-election but there were only five seats available.

Also, Portarlington North was moved from Offaly to Kildare South and from Laois, Ballybrittas, Jamestown, Kilmullen and Portarlington South were transferred out.

The final 2022 census figures were published recently and they show Offaly with a population of 83,150 while Laois stands at 91,877.

The Constitution states that the population per TD nationally must not exceed 30,000 (or be under 20,000). A variance level of about 5% either side of the national average is usually permitted in individual constituencies.

Therefore it is clear that with 175,027 people residing in both counties, a five-seat Laois-Offaly comprising all of both counties is out of the question. Two separate three-seaters is the next obvious option but the calculations the Constituency Commission make will depend on the total size of the Dail.

In a 180-seat Dail the average population per TD would be 28,606. If the Dail increases to just 172 seats, the average would be 29,936.

The scenarios if Offaly and Laois were both to become three-seat constituencies are -

• A 172-seat Dail – Laois would be 2.25% above the average, Offaly would be 7.4% under
• A 174-seat Dail – Laois: 3.5% above the average, Offaly: 6.3% under
• A 176-seat Dail – Laois: 4.7 % above the average, Offaly: 5.3% under
• A 178-seat Dail – Laois: 5.9% above the average, Offaly: 4.2% under
• A 180-seat Dail – Laois: 7% above the average, Offaly: 3.1% under

Therefore, it appears that two three-seat constituencies, without any additions or subtractions of territory in either county, might be permitted if the Dail is increased to 176 seats. Indeed, the argument has been made in many submissions that the commission should recommend a larger Dail on this occasion and therefore future-proof further population surges. Laois is comfortably within the range in most scenarios but Offaly is falling short and if the commission shies away from permitting a variance, it must breach county boundaries again, something the Constitution advises it to avoid as far as practicable.If it decides to bring in voters to Offaly from a neighbouring county, Laois is the obvious donor.

As Carol Harte put it in her submission to the review (written based on preliminary census figures from the CSO which were lower than the recently announced correct total): “Including approximately 4,500 people from county Laois in an Offaly constituency would give a very similar population in both constituencies. Based on 176 TDs, there would be no variance from the national average per TD of 29,111. Based on 181 TDs, there would be a minor variance from the national average per TD of 28,306.

“I believe this is the most practical way to look at the current constituency of Laois/Offaly and this would involve minimal change in the county boundaries.”

In his submission Brendan Fleming suggests the answer lies in Portarlington: “The most obvious area where this can be achieved is in the town of Portarlington. The county boundary between Laois and Offaly already runs through the town of Portarlington, with Portarlington North DED [district electoral division] on the Offaly side and Portarlington South DED on the Laois side. The population of Portarlington South DED is 7,856. If all of this DED was transferred to the new Offaly constituency, this would result in an imbalance whereby the new Offaly constituency would have a population in excess of 30,000. The Commission would then have to consider transferring other parts of Offaly back into Laois. This can readily be avoided by transferring just part of the Portarlington South DED to the new Offaly constituency and leaving the remainder of the Portarlington South DED in the Laois constituency.”

Miriam Uí Cheallacháin, Offaly Fianna Fail, calls for an Offaly three-seat constituency in her submission and says the following about breaches of county boundaries: “The situation where the local representational base differs with that of the national representational base is problematic and militates against local democracy. It is imperative that the integrity of the county boundaries be adhered to in the interest of living the philosophies of a democracy.”

Not everyone agrees with the two three-seat constituency approach for Laois and Offaly.

Bryan Corrigan, Laois/Offaly Labour Party argued for the status quo, telling the commission: “In the event that your findings conclude that it is necessary to indeed make changes to the Laois/Offaly Boundaries then we ask that you first consider the following: 1. That the Constituency of Offaly (Circa 83,000) is declared as a three-seat constituency to accommodate its past, current and projected growth in population over the next years until another review is undertaken. 2. That the Constituency of Laois (Circa 92,000) forms the basis as a four-seat constituency to accommodate its past, current and projected growth in population over the next years until another review is undertaken.”

And Ciaran Fallon made the following point about Portarlington: “Over the [last] three elections, we have been moved around to make up the numbers with each election... Coupled with this, we have the fact that the town is bisected for county council elections leading to what I believe might be the worst per capita representation for any town in Ireland - where 9,000 Laois residents have a single county councillor. Coupled with this once more, we were added to the South for the 2019 European elections. This has caused a total disillusionment with politics in one of the fastest growing towns in Ireland and immense frustration. No TD could realistically listen to the concerns of residents and act on those concerns when they know the town will not be able to reward them or vote for them in the following election.”

Patrick Matthews has a different recommendation for Offaly: “The electoral divisions of Carbury, Carrick, Drehid, Kilrainy, and Windmill Cross in the former rural district of Edenderry No. 2 currently form part of the Kildare South constituency and are adjacent to the town of Edenderry with a combined population of 4,899. Transferring them to the Offaly constituency produces a 3-seat Offaly constituency with a population of 87,567, giving a population/TD ratio of 29,189, a value of 2.0% below the national average under a 172-seat scenario.”

In her submission, the Fianna Fail Kildare senator, Fiona O'Loughlin, says Portarlington and Ballybrittas should be moved out of Kildare South because it does not need them for four seats.

Return of three-seat North Tipperary constituency likely

Meanwhile Tipperary, two three-seaters North and South until the elections of 2016 and 2020 when it returned just five TDs as a single constituency, has seen its population climb too, raising the possibility of it reverting to two separate constituencies and gaining the sixth seat it lost.

A radical proposal for change comes from James Doyle. He suggests that a new four-seat constituency called Offaly-Tipperary North could be created by transferring the following from Tipperary to Offaly - Aghnameadle, Aglishcloghane, Ardcrony, Ballingarry, Ballygibbon, Ballylusky, Ballymackey, Borrisnafarney, Borrisnoe, Borrisokane, Bourney East, Bourney West, Cappagh, Carrig, Cloghjordan, Cloghprior, Clohaskin, Clonbeg, Clonoulty East, Clonoulty West, Cullen, Curraheen, Drom, Finnoe, Graigue, Kilbarron, Killavinoge Killea, Kiltinan, Knigh, Lorrha East, Lorrha West, Mertonhall, Monsea, Nenagh East Urban, Nenagh Rural, Nenagh West Urban, Rahelty, Rathcabban, Rathnaveoge, Redwood, Riverstown, Roscrea, Templemore, Terryglass, Timoney, Uskane.

He says the total population of that constituency would be 123,431 resulting in a population per TD of 30,858. The remainder of the county, with 122,224 people, could become a four-seat constituency of Tipperary South.

Darina Duffy Kelly, former chair of Rathcabbin Development Association, opposes moving her area from a Tipperary constituency again, saying: “I felt that the normal chain of communication from councillor to TD to government did not function properly during 2016-2020, as the Offaly TDs were not heeded by Tipperary county council on several matters raised in our village such as proper street lighting and construction and repair of wheelchair accessible footpaths.”

She says the Lower Ormond area is significant for tourism, agriculture and culture and borders the river Shannon which she maintains will be a key source of water to the Dublin area in the future.

She added: “Rathcabbin is the site of a former illegal dump currently being decommissioned by Tipperary County Council. The completion of this project and subsequent use of this site will require close cooperation between Government representatives and Tipperary County Council. The people of Rathcabbin, in my opinion, will need to be represented by a Tipperary TD who is familiar with the history of this problem and to the Council decision makers.”

The total population of Tipperary is now 167,895. In the 2020 election Birdhill, Kilcomenty and Newport were moved to the Limerick City constituency.

In both 2016 and 2020, North Tipperary elected three of the five constituency TDs, Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail), Alan Kelly (Labour) and Michael Lowry (Independent). Another North Tipp politician, Cllr Noel Coonan (Fine Gael), was a TD until 2016 and he was not a candidate in the 2020 election.

In a reestablished North Tipperary constituency, all three sitting TDs would be favourites to return to the Dail, if they seek re-election.

If Sinn Fein's strength in national opinion polls is replicated in North Tipp the party could take a seat but the strongest potential candidate, Nenagh councillor Seamus Morris, resigned from the party in 2017 after claiming he was bullied by other members.

Kilbarron councillor Joe Hannigan, also a candidate in Offaly previously (see above) may decide to fly his independent flag again.

The commission must make its recommendations by September at the latest.