Offaly footballers to be without three key men in 2018
The Offaly footballers go into their final game in Division 3 of the Allianz Football League and despite having just three points to their name, they still control their own destiny.
They are greatly helped by the fact that the two teams above them, Sligo and Derry, play each other guaranteeing that one, or possibly both of them, will drop points.
Offaly's opponents Westmeath can mathematically still achieve promotion but it is highly unlikely that they will as they would need Longford and Fermanagh to draw and they would have to beat Offaly by at least 27 points. That won't happen..... at least we really hope it won't.....
Here is the table as it stands going into the weekend and a breakdown of the possible scenarios this Sunday and what Offaly need to do and what might need to go their way for Stephen Wallace's team to avoid the drop.
Offaly win by six points they are safe
If Offaly win by six points, they are home and hosed no matter what the result between Derry and Sligo. The lads will be able to put their feet up and relax and we will all go home from Cusack park happy. We will have more on this below.
Offaly win and there is a winner between Derry and Sligo
This is the simplest scenario. If Offaly win and there is a winner between Sligo and Derry, Offaly stay up. They will leapfrog the loser of the other game in the table and will survive......just..... but just will be good enough.
Offaly draw and Derry beat Sligo
If Offaly draw, they could still stay up on score difference but in this case they would be nervously waiting on word from Sligo to see how the other game went. Derry would need to win by six points or more to secure Offaly's place in Division 3. If Sligo were to win, Offaly would be relegated....
Offaly win and Sligo and Derry draw
If Sligo and Derry draw, Offaly need to win by six points or more to be sure of going through. Offaly currently have a score difference of -27 which does not help their cause. Sligo's is currently -22. If Sligo and Derry draw, Offaly will need to win by six points to stay up. Stay with us for the next bit. If Sligo and Derry draw and Offaly win by five, they could still stay up if they score three more points than Sligo on the day as the sides would be level on score difference. So for example if Sligo scored 0-10 in a draw with Derry, Offaly would need to score 0-13 or more while winning by five points. Confused? So are we. But if you thought that was complicated there is also.....
The play-off scenario
Right. Where do we start. A perfect storm of results needs to happen for this to come into effect but it is within the realms of possibility. For starters Offaly need to win by five points and Sligo and Derry need to draw. If any other result happens, what follows in irrelevant. IF these two results happen AND Offaly score exactly two more points than Sligo, the two teams finish level on score difference AND scores scored AND scores conceded AND head to head. At that point, it will take a one off, winner takes all play-off to decide who stays in Division 3.
This one is simple, if Offaly lose, they are relegated