Vulnerable Offaly now face one final hurdle for place in Joe McDonagh Cup final

WITH the hard part of two big wins on the road done, Offaly senior hurlers definitely won't be counting their chickens before they are hatched as they face Carlow at home this Saturday in their final group game in the Joe McDonagh Cup.

After a roller coaster ride through the campaign, Offaly now find themselves on the cusp of a renewal with Antrim in the Joe McDonagh Cup final but the potential for things to go wrong remains high.

A win over Carlow will put them into the final and with home advantage in Tullamore, they will be expected to succeed but it is far from a formality. Offaly have looked very vulnerable throughout the campaign and they were within a hair's breath of a devastating defeat or draw in Tralee last Saturday.

They eventually got home with a one point win in a high scoring shootout but it was a very close run thing. Kerry came back from ten points down inside the closing quarter and were on level terms in injury time. A super David Nally point got Offaly across the line but it was a very close run thing.

WATCH: David Nally's monster point snatches dramatic win for Offaly against Kerry

It was an extraordinary game of hurling, thrilling viewing, heart stopping stuff. It was also kamikaze hurling at times as Offaly controlled the game and then floundered badly for period. It showed why both counties are in the Joe McDonagh Cup and the extent of the challenges they face with getting up to the top tier but that doesn't really matter at the moment.

Offaly are where they are and their hunger for Joe McDonagh Cup success is beyond question. It has been a tricky campaign for them. They had three long away trips to Antrim, Down and Kerry. They were underdogs in Belfast but almost pulled off a shock win, only losing to a last gasp injury time goal.

They had their worse performance of the campaign at home to Meath but were never in danger of losing. They improved away to Down in Ballycran, though they left the door open and just about survived and last Saturday's game was one of those where logic and reason went out the window as it took on a life of its own.

BIG PICTURE SPEICAL: Offaly hurling fans at the Leinster Minor Hurling Final in Portlaoise

It sets the scene for a final group game against Carlow in Tullamore this Saturday. The visitors are still very much in the hunt for a Joe McDonagh Cup final place. Antrim have already qualified and Offaly are in pole position to join them as they are second with six points from their four games. Kerry and Carlow both have four points and are still alive.

Kerry travel to Belfast on Saturday and while they should be beaten up there, you never know as Antrim don't have anything at stake and can afford to experiment. A Kerry win is way more possible than it would be in one where Antrim had something on the line.

If Kerry and Carlow were both to win, then they would be tied on six points with Offaly. Offaly will be gone in this scenario as their scoring difference is worse than both. If Kerry lose and Carlow win, Offaly will be gone under the head to head rule.

A draw will be enough for Offaly and they are in the very happy position of having their fate in their own hands. It won't be simple though and they can anticipate another titanic battle. Carlow have been a bit all over the place in the competition. They hammered Meath in their first game but then suffered a very bad 3-21 to 0-15 defeat by Kerry. They ran Carlow close in Belfast and got the win they needed against Down last weekend, 2-25 to 1-19.

It leaves the odds against them but at the same time, Carlow are just one win away from possibly reaching the final. That is not a bad place to be and this is true knockout hurling.

Expect another drama packed, helter-skelter afternoon of hurling. Offaly have done what they had to do so far and the results are the bottom line. While you can argue that Offaly won't survive in the top tier, it is important to get up there and see how they go – it has also brought Westmeath on and they had a great draw with Wexford last and that remains the target for Offaly. Offaly may be without Ross Ravenhill who went off in the first half on Saturday with an ankle injury but don't seem to have any other major concerns.

At the moment, however, the only focus is on Carlow. It is another banana skin for Offaly but it will be a very different game than the Tralee one. Kerry looked to have an edge on fitness there but Saturday's game will be tighter and is unlikely to be as open. Offaly have the hurlers and the hurling to win but it also has the potential to go wrong. Offaly to win.