PREVIEW: Hard to see Offaly Senior Football Championship winners coming from outside the big four

YOU can probably divide the Offaly Senior Football Championship into four tiers. The real top tier is Rhode and Tullamore, who have dominated the championship in recent years, and who are the starter's favourites once again.

The second tier is Ferbane and Edenderry. Two clubs with a lot of talent, plenty of county players at different levels and the definite ability to break through and snatch a title.

The third tier is Clara on their own. They are championship outsiders but have plenty of ability in their ranks and if any club from outside the top quartet was to win the Dowling Cup, it would be them.

The fourth tier comprises of Durrow, Shamrocks and Bracknagh. The three clubs who almost certainly can't win the championship and whose priority is avoiding relegation.

Despite the presence of a few teams who can't win it, the Senior Football Championship should be a competitive, decent competition. The fight for the Dowling Cup is compelling and nothing is written in stone.

Tullamore and Rhode do look to be marginally ahead of the others but both come with warning labels attached.

Tullamore have produced some great underage teams in recent years and had outstanding peformers on underage teams, including the 2021 All-Ireland U-20 football champions. They look to have the players to dominate but it is a long time since Tullamore have dominated at this level and last year's final defeat by Rhode showed how hard championships are to win.

There is a temptation to make Tullamore favourites, Rhode second favourites, Ferbane third and Edenderry fourth but it is hard to know with Tullamore. Johnny Moloney has transferred to Galway and while no one in Tullamore will have one bad thing to say to a player who has given such tremendous service – he is now living and working in Galway -, he is still a big loss to them.

Injuries to two of their outstanding talents, John Furlong and Cormac Egan were a definite factor in last year's final loss. Both played for Offaly U-20 footballers this year but Furlong is still trying to get right while Egan's all action, power running game means that he is always on the borderline of getting injured – in fact, he missed a Tullamore hurling game at the weekend with a hamstring injury and could be in bother but Furlong played a full U-20 football game in a run away win against Clara last week, which is very good news.

Hopefully both players will get to play a big part in this year's championship. It is a joy to watch them play football and supporters will enjoy seeing them in club fare. Their presence will strengthen Tullamore, their absence weaken them, though they could still win a championship without them.

Rhode are a remarkable force of nature. We have written their obituary in the past but won't fall into that trap again after last year's sensational championship win. The dominant force in Offaly for the past two decades, Alan McNamee may now be on borrowed time in football terms and Niall McNamee is a veteran but both will still perform at a high level. While he had drawn the curtain on his long county career, Niall McNamee remains the best, most dangerous forward in Offaly and he will give Rhode a chance against everyone.

Rhode have two more lethal forwards in Ruari McNamee and Anton Sullivan while Aaron Kellaghan will do harm against most teams. Their forwards will give them a chance against every dayand no one will be surprised if Rhode add another championship to their collection.

Ferbane almost beat them last year, losing in a semi-final penalty shootout, and they command total respect. They have some very good forwards. Joe Maher was on the county panel this year, Cathal Flynn would have been there if he had went in and Cian Johnson remains one of the deadliest finishers in Offaly – even if the opening for him to establish himself at county level is getting narrower.

They will give anyone a game and it would not take a lot for them to win a championship.

Edenderry are in the same category but with a bit more uncertainty hanging over them. The nature of their defeat by Tullamore in the semi-final last year raises questions, though the leap they would have to make from there to taking the Dowling Cup is not as big as it seems at first glance. They have some of the best players in Offaly.

Lee Pearson, Rory Egan, who will miss the early games as he is in America, Jordan Hayes and Cian Farrell are their key men and should ensure they are very competitive. Farrell was fully back this year after missing most of last year with a cruciate injury. If he can get his old form fully back, and he has shown flashes of this, then Edenderry will be very serious contenders. The departure of a manager Ken Robinson recently does throw some doubt into it – he has been replaced by a local man, Declan Cummins and we can still expect Edenderry to be extremely competitive.

Clara have the best prospects of the rest. They have some exciting young players and were very unlucky to lose to Ferbane in the quarter-final last year. They should be able to get out of their group and could talk to a big team in a knockout game but people in Clara won't be rushing to the bookmakers to back them to win the Dowling Cup, never mind anywhere else.

Shamrocks have too many absentees from last year, too many good players gone to make hay this year. Jack Bryant will be back from America later in the campaign but by that stage, Shamrocks could be in a relegation play off. Padraig Cantwell, Sean O'Toole, Kieran Dolan are all injured while Scott Delaney, Alan Heffernan, David O'Toole-Greene, Jack Bryant, Paddy Dunican and Eoin Rosney are all travelling. Rosney was on and off the team last year but all the others would be automatic starters and their absence means that Shamrocks' only real ambition is to stay up.

Durrow and Bracknagh are in the same boat and ironically, the first round has thrown up games that could well decide who goes into the relegation play off at an early stage: Bracknagh v Shamrocks in group 2 and Clara and Durrow in group 1. They are that big and they are real season defining games for the four clubs.

You can be fairly certain of four of the quarter-finalists. The top two teams in each group go into the semi-finals with the next two criss crossing in two quarter-finals. In group 1, Tullamore and Ferbane should qualify and one of them should make the semis. Clara are the favourites to claim the third qualification spot with Durrow in the relegation play off.

In group 2, Rhode and Edenderry will almost certainly claim a quarter-final with the winner of their game in the semi-final while the winner of Shamrocks and Bracknagh should also make the quarters.

Just as the first round could determine the relegation play off, it will also be pivotal in who tops the group and goes direct into the semi-finals. Tullamore and Ferbane meet in group 1 with Edenderry and Rhode in group 2. You would back Tullamore and Rhode at the moment but a direct semi-final is not life or death and sometimes, a quarter-final game is no bad thing.

Expect the championship winners to come out of Rhode, Tullamore, Ferbane and Edenderry. Rhode and Tullamore have the stronger pre-season credentials. At some time, their dominance will end and it could well be this year but they have been playing musical chairs for the past two years and there may be another season in that. It could be Tullamore's turn to dance this year but they need to get most of their best young players onto the field.

Verdict – Tullamore.

First round games

Group 1

Clara v Durrow: Friday, July 14 in O'Connor Park 7.30pm; Verdict – Clara.

Tullamore v Ferbane: Friday, July 14 in Ballycumber 7.30pm; Verdict – Tullamore.

Group 2

Shamrocks v Bracknagh: Friday, July 14 in Walsh Island 7.30pm; Verdict – Bracknagh.

Edenderry v Rhode: Friday, July 14 in Gracefield 7.30pm; Verdict – Rhode.