Stakes sky high for three clubs in last round of Offaly SHC groups

THE stakes are sky high for three clubs in particular in the final round of the Molloy Precast and Environmental Systems Senior Hurling Championship next weekend.

Group 2 is done and dusted apart from the identity of the table toppers and semi-finalists. Belmont, Shinrone and Kilcormac-Killoughey are all safely through. Champions, Kilcormac-Killoughey will top it if they beat Shinrone in round 4 while a Shinrone win or a draw will see a rejuvenated Belmont into the semi-finals.

All the interest is on group 1 where Birr have qualified but Ballinamere, Coolderry and Tullamore are engaged in a furious fight for survival. Birr play Ballinamere and Coolderry meet Tullamore in two games that are being played at the same time on Saturday.

A draw will ensure top spot and a semi-final place for Birr but Ballinamere find themselves on unexpectedly precarious ground. Their first round defeat by Coolderry has placed them under pressure and if they lose and Tullamore beat Coolderry, they will be gone. A draw will be enough to put Ballinamere in the quarter-finals while a win would earn a semi-final berth if Coolderry don't beat Tullamore.

The meeting of Coolderry and Tullamore is a knockout tussle. A draw will do Coolderry but a defeat will put them out and Tullamore will really test their mettle - a win will earn them a quarter-final place and that would be a huge step forward for a club that has been fighting relegation in recent years.

Group 1

Coolderry v Tullamore: Saturday, September 6 in Rath 5pm

Coolderry would normally be warm favourites to beat Tullamore but that is not the case here and they are sitting ducks in some aspects.

You would still expect Coolderry to find a way to win this. They tend to pull these type of games out of the bag but this one is loaded with danger for them.

Firstly, doubts have emerged about Coolderry after their season making first round win over Ballinamere. That set them up but they haven't built on it and have a vulnerable look about them. They weren't great in their defeat by Birr and are really feeling the absence of two defensive players, Stephen Connolly, who is out with a cruciate and Will Malone. Coolderry have a lot of hurlers but can't afford to be down first team players and their absence has weakened them,

The second big factor is Tullamore's improvement and good form. They did really well to salvage a late draw against Birr and that has made their season, leaving their fate in their own hands in this game. They have been much better this year than in recent years and they will be a hard nut to crack.

It may not be enough for the win but you can be fairly certain of Tullamore performing and they won't be one bit afraid of Coolderry.

We still can't be certain of Tullamore. They were fantastic late on against Birr but the favourites may have taken their eye off the ball when they thought they had it won. It was a great point for Tullamore but shouldn't be over analysed.

Tullamore have a definite chance here and they will be trying to run at Coolderry when they can, using the power and pace in their ranks – Cormac Egan is the most notable exponent of this but the football strengths that some of their players have is an asset, even if the downside is that the hurling skills are not as sharp as they would be if concentrating on that game.

It is a big test for Coolderry and as things stand you would put the win likelihood in the region of: Coolderry 55%, Tullamore 45%. It is not a 50-50 game but if that reading of it is accurate, it is not a big gap. Coolderry should perform but they are beatable and a Tullamore win would not be the shock that it would have been last year.

Verdict – Coolderry.

Ballinamere v Birr: Saturday, September 6 in Kilcormac 5pm

If Coolderry draw or win, Ballinamere will be through irrespective of how they fare against Birr but the last thing they want is to be relying on that safety net. The nightmare scenario for Ballinamere is losing this and then waiting for the result from Rath, knowing that Tullamore were either winning or it was going down to the wire.

Beaten finalists last year, a group exit would be a pure disaster for Ballinamere but they now find themselves staring that possibility full in the face. In some ways, that is a good thing for them but only if they survive. They basically find themselves in knockout hurling a round earlier than planned and Ballinamere have to perform now.

They have blown hot and cold this year and have not been as convincing as last year. They were poor in the first round against Coolderry but it was always possible that they would be off the boil for that. They have done what they had to do since, beating Tullamore and Seir Kieran. That would probably have been enough for them only for Tullamore rescuing a draw against Birr and that has changed the goalposts in this group.

Birr have improved significantly this year. They were very good in their wins over Seir Kieran and Coolderry and we can't read too much in to their dropped point against Tullamore at the moment. It could be just a brief aberration and probably is but the truth of that won't really come out until knockout hurling – and this isn't a knockout game for them, even if they would love to go straight into the semi-finals.

It is close to a 50-50 game. Ballinamere may be slight favourites but that is based on last year's form, not this year. If we go on this year, Birr deserve that rating. Ballinamere have Dan Ravenhill back and that is a big help to them. They had been worried about a Dan Bourke knee injury but he got the all clear and was outstanding in the win over Seir Kieran. With the county players at their disposal, Ballinamere should be in knockout hurling.

The way for them to do it is to get the result themselves and not be depending of anything else. They may do that but this is fraught with danger for them, Birr will be salivating at the thoughts of getting at them and are well capable of beating them.

Verdict – Ballinamere.

Group 2

St Rynagh's v Kinnitty: Sunday, September 7 in Birr 3.30pm

St Rynagh's exit at the group stages for the first time in memory was one of the big stories of the championship so far and the meeting of them and Kinnitty will decide who goes into the relegation play off and who is secure for next year.

It is almost inconceivable that St Rynagh's will go back to senior “B” but anything is possible and they have to have their attitude right to avoid that. Kinnitty almost beat Belmont a few weeks ago, have a great desire to stay senior and their heads will be in the right place for this.

Despite heading into a transitional period and being out of contention on merit, St Rynagh's should be stronger than both Kinnitty and Seir Kieran but they can't take anyone for granted. They will be keen to take relegation quickly off the table and you would imagine that their approach will be right for this. Kinnitty will make them work hard and command respect but St Rynagh's can get the win.

Verdict – St Rynagh's.

Shinrone v Kilcormac-Killoughey: Sunday, September 7 in Birr 5.15pm

Kilcormac-Killoughey have more at stake in this game than Shinrone and that could be a factor – notwithstanding that K-K would be the favourites, no matter what was to play for.

It will be an interesting test for Shinrone, who looked very good early on in the championship but lost to Belmont in their last game. That ended their prospects of a direct route into the semi-finals and this game really won't tell us much about them – unless they do manage to get a win, which would be clear evidence that they are title contenders.

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As things stand, they have as much chance as anyone else outside of K-K and they always give value for money. After winning their first championship in 2022, Shinrone need to win a second one to truly prove themselves but with K-K so strong and Ballinamere emerging, that is a giant challenge.

K-K drew with Belmont in their first game but as players returned to action, they have begun to look a bit invincible again. They are strong title favourites and their current form suggests they will be able to win this one.

Verdict – Kilcormac-Killoughey.