Favourites hit form as Offaly SHC progresses on expected lines

ST Rynagh's exit with one game left may not have been predicted by many but was always a possibility in an Molloy Precast and Environmental Systems Senior Hurling Championship that is progressing on expected lines

The top team in each group goes into the semi-finals with second and third meeting in two quarter-finals. Drawn in a tough group two with champions, Kilcormac-Killoughey, Belmont, Shinrone and Kinnitty, St Rynagh's faced their three toughest games first and had to get a result in their two openers against Shinrone and Belmont.

Instead, they lost both of these and that made them odds on for an exit in the group stages for the first time in the memory of most. Kilcormac-Killoughey duly sent them packing on Saturday evening with a 1-31 to 1-18 win – with Adam Screeney and Charlie Mitchell back in their starting line-up and Cillian Kiely on the subs bench but not used, K-K were in cruise control for a lot of it and still shot the lights out.

St Rynagh's demise is a surprise considering their standing but it is very much a minor one and their prospects of this fate were the same as Belmont and Shinrone at the start.

K-K also have Ter Guinan, Oisin Mahon and Leigh Kavanagh to come back onto their team while the veteran Enda Grogan will be considered for a call up from their senior B side as things progress. It means that picking the K-K team will not be for the faint hearted and it will not be simple to keep everyone happy if they are at full strength. Peter and Thomas Geraghty were left off for Adam Screeney and Charlie Mitchell on Saturday evening and while that was always likely to have been the call, Peter in particular is unlikely to have been jumping for joy at that after a man of the match display in their fortunate first round draw with Belmont.

It is, however, very much first world problems, it is a great dilemma to have and it also means that K-K are warm favourites to make it three in a row – despite the obvious credentials of Ballinamere who ran them very close in last year's final but have not found their form yet and Shinrone, who have started very well. Birr have also hit the ground running and are displaying great work rate and appetite but they still have a long road ahead of them.

Kinnitty were desperately unlucky to lose to Belmont in the other group 2 game, with the winners scoring 1-1 deep in injury time to snatch a 1-13 to 0-14 win.

Belmont's win puts them top of the table on 5 points from three game and they are assured of a quarter-final. They will be happy with that after a group exit last year and it takes the pressure off at a crucial stage as a lot of their players have a heavy dual schedule with Ferbane footballers – Oisin Kelly will be back from America and will enhance their prospects.

Shinrone have four points from two games, K-K have three from two, Kinnitty have none from two and St Rynagh's are pointless from three.

Kinnitty have a mathematical chance of qualification but it isn't a realistic one. They can get to four points which could qualify them but they travel to Kilcormac next to face Kilcormac-Killoughey and it would be a huge shock if they won that. It looks like their final game with St Rynagh's will determine who goes into the relegation play off.

Belmont and Shinrone meet next and the winners of that could well make the semi-finals. K-K, however, are also in the equation, their last game is against Shinrone and the semi-final place from this group is still up for grabs.

Birr continued their impressive start to the season in group 1 with a convincing 2-18 to 1-14 win over Coolderry while Tullamore recorded a hugely important 0-18 to 1-13 win over Seir Kieran.

It means that Birr are top of the table with four points from two games, Coolderry have four from three and have a bye in the next round. Tullamore are on two points from two and Seir Kieran have no point from three.

Birr, Coolderry and Ballinamere were favourites to qualify from the start and this is still the likely scenario but Tullamore could throw a spanner in these works.

They lifted a lot of the pressure on them with their win over Seir Kieran. While Seir Kieran can still avoid the relegation play off, they will have to beat Ballinamere to do so and need results to fall in their favour as well. That is a long shot and they are now favourites to be in the battle to avoid the drop.

Shane Hand was controversially removed as Kilcormac-Killoughey manager last year and went straight to Tullamore. There was considerable pressure on him to make sure that Tullamore at least retained their status and that looks like happening after Friday's late win. They are now in bonus territory and could make the quarter-finals – they play Birr and Coolderry in their last two games.

Birr are motoring very well and will be odds on favourites to beat them but Coolderry have floundered after a fine opening round win over Ballinamere and Tullamore will have a decent outside chance against them.

Assuming that Ballinamere beat Seir Kieran, Tullamore will have to at least beat one of Birr and Coolderry to make a quarter-final.

Kilcormac-Killoughey set down frightening marker of intent as St Rynagh's make tame group exit

Round 4 pairings are:

Group 1

Birr v Tullamore;

Ballinamere v Seir Kieran.

Group 2

Shinrone v Belmont;

Kilcormac-Killoughey v Kinnitty.