Resurgent Offaly head into 50/50 Leinster SFC opener with confidence soaring

WITH their confidence soaring after a much better than expected National Football League campaign, Offaly will be full of optimism as they travel to Navan for their Leinster Senior Football Championship opener with Meath.

Promotion from Division 3 and a great win over Kildare in the league final a couple of weeks ago sends Offaly into the championship in a very good and positive frame of mind.

It is a situation that no one could have foreseen at the start of the season. Despite the possibility of a bounce from Mickey Harte's shock appointment as joint manager with Declan Kelly, Offaly have surpassed all expectations.

Things were on a very low ebb after a horrendous end to last season when they suffered Tailteann Cup humiliation at the hands of London and Limerick and their turnaround since then has been quite remarkable.

A number of factors have worked in Offaly's favour. Mickey Harte has had a very obvious impact on the players and is dovetailing very well with Declan Kelly, whose hand prints can also be seen on what is happening, in a variety of ways.

The new rules are suiting a light and very fast Offaly side, who have adapted terrifically well to features such as the tap and go rule while they are relishing the more open nature of football and the opportunities created by not having to breach blanket defences.

Some of the outstanding players from the 2021 All-Ireland U20 football champions are also coming to their milk at senior level. Injuries slowed the progress of some while it was easy to forget how young they were but they are all at the right age now and the timing of the new rules has been absolutely perfect for players such as Cormac Egan, Cathal Flynn and Keith O'Neill.

Offaly have performed very well to date, albeit with some hairy moments on the road to promotion. They came flying out of the blocks with great wins over Sligo, Laois and Antrim before suffering a disappointing and controversial defeat in Fermanagh. Offaly left themselves with a mountain to climb after a very poor first half but almost pulled it off in the second half and were denied a draw by a wrong refereeing call on the three men forward rule.

They also stuttered in their next game against Leitrim, going behind early on before rallying to get the win they needed and they produced a super display to shock high flying Kildare in Tullamore. This win put them on the brink of promotion, meaning that anything less than an eleven point loss in their last group game in Clare would put them up. They danced with danger that day and could have been in a very difficult position before getting on top in the second half. Offaly were two points up inside the last quarter when Clare rallied to get the win but promotion was secured and that was very much the bottom line.

Promotion has given a huge boost to all in the Offaly camp. It has kept the people waiting in the long grass to have a pop at Declan Kelly and others out of view for the moment but away from that, it has given the players and management real encouragement that they are doing the right thing and on the right road.

Offaly wound down their league campaign with an excellent performance in their league final win over Kildare in Croke Park and no matter what happens now, the season is a success and playing in Division 2 next season will be a great help to the young players.

A win over Meath on Sunday would be the icing on the cake and would make it a really good season while a defeat will leave a sour after taste. With Dublin in the same side of the draw, Offaly look set for the Tailteann Cup either way but it would be great to get another chance against them and see if they can improve on last year's clash when they were never in contention.

Offaly have won a lot of praise for the quality and pace of football they are playing. That is nice to hear and it has been great to watch. It is genuinely exciting and Offaly are clearly being encouraged to run straight at teams and take them them on.

Championship represents a different challenge for them. Meath will certainly be a lot tighter and more restrictive on Sunday than Kildare were in Croke Park and they will be a lot harder to break down and breach.

The bookmakers have Meath as warm odds on favourites: 1-4 in one place with Offaly at 7-2. That seems generous and will tempt some Offaly supporters to have a punt. Meath deserve to be favourites but this seems much closer to a 50-50 game than those odds indicate.

Meath have home venue and they were in the promotion race in Division 2 of the league. They have operated at a higher level than Offaly this year but the gap between them is not huge and Meath are far from world beaters.

Their last three meetings show how tight this might be. Offaly had a great win over them in the championship in Tullamore in 2023, 1-11 to 0-10. They drew in the league in Tullamore in 2022 and Meath scraped a 1-13 to 0-14 win in the championship in Navan in 2019.

Offaly turned in an excellent first half display in 2023 and held on for dear life in the second half to win. There has been a huge turnover in the Offaly team since then and they certainly look to be a better side now, though championship is the great judge.

From that 2023 team, Lee Pearson, Rory Egan, Jack McEvoy and Dylan Hyland are the only certain starters on Sunday – David Dempsey is on the road back from injury and will be on the panel but may not start in a settled looking defence. Ruari McNamee was centre forward and Nigel Dunne was full forward that day and will probably be subs on Sunday while Ian Duffy, Declan Hogan, Peter Cunningham, Ciaran Donnelly, Conor McNamee, Cian Farrell, Anton Sullivan and Jamie Evans are all off the panel.

Offaly used their full quota of subs that day and Shane Tierney is the only survivor from them with Cian Donohue, Bernard Allen, Joe Maher and Bill Carroll also gone. Tierney's dynamic energy and unselfish off the ball running has been a great help to Offaly's attacking play and he will be starting on Sunday.

That all represents a very big turnover of players and Lee Pearson and Rory Egan were the only ones of the 2021 All-Ireland champions on the team that day.

It is great to see other young players from that side establishing themselves now. Pearson and Rory Egan have been very steady in defence while the displays of Cormac Egan, John Furlong, Cathal Flynn and Keith O'Neill have been breathtaking for much of the league. Jack Bryant also got up to that level in the league final win and it all augurs very well for the future.

There has been turbulence in the Meath camp with the departure of coaches Joe McMahon and Martin Corey after the league but as expected, that had very minimal impact for their championship opener against Carlow as they won very easily by 1-30 to 0-19.

With Carlow in a heap following the departure of their manager Shane Curran before championship, they were sitting ducks, and Offaly will provide a much sterner test for Meath and provide a more realistic indication of what impact, if any, the departure of the coaches has had on manager Robbie Brennan and the players.

There is mixed news for Offaly on the injury front. David Dempsey and Ruari McNamee have recovered from hamstring injuries but another hamstring victim, Diarmuid Egan and emerging midfielder Cillian Bourke are still out. Egan had been going very well early in the league before getting injured while Bourke has a knee injury. A Leaving Certificate student in Colaiste Choilm in Tullamore, Bourke is still a big loss despite his tender years and would be a big help in the midfield zone.

Jack McEvoy and Jordan Hayes have worked their socks off in midfield but Offaly can sometimes struggle to win primary possession and Bourke would give them that potential. The ability to field high ball is crucial in the new game with goalkeepers often forced to go long with kickouts but Offaly have survived this year as McEvoy and Hayes have drained the tank in every game as half forwards and backs sweep in quickly to gather breaks.

Meath will test them though. They are physically bigger in the midfield diamond and will be well able to win high ball.

There is unlikely to be any big surprises on the Offaly team when it is announced later this weekend. The big dilemma facing management is whether to start David Dempsey or not. His strength and experience is a great asset but it would be hard to leave any player off at this stage and Aidan Bracken and Daire McDaid have taken full advantage of their opportunity.

It is a pity that Bourke and Diarmuid Egan are not available and Offaly have been reluctant to use their subs bench in some games this year.

REMEMBER THIS: How Offaly shocked Meath in the 2023 Leinster SFC

https://www.offalyexpress.ie/news/gaa/1152876/heroic-offaly-send-shellshocked-meath-into-tailteann-cup.html

It will be very interesting to see how this unfolds and Offaly have a great chance. No one is getting carried away in the camp and management will be telling them to keep their feet on the ground. They celebrated the league final win over Kildare and a mini blow out was no harm at all but that is in the past and must be placed on the back burner now.

Championship is a very different environment and this game has the potential to go wrong for Offaly. They showed in the league that they can still produce a very below par display and if they are not close to 100% right, they will be gone quickly into the Tailteann Cup.

They are, however, playing very well and are well capable of producing another very big display. It is right that they are underdogs but Meath will be fully aware of the danger they pose and no result will be a surprise in this one.