Forecaster in snow update for February as jet stream bears down on Ireland

Ireland could be about to return to subzero temperatures and possible snow in February, according to a number of reliable weather models.

Milder weather has made its way to Ireland this week and while that looks like continuing into next week, the second week in February from February 6 could bring about the return of winter.

Offaly forecaster Cathal Nolan from Ireland's Weather Channel has been monitoring weather models and is predicting a shift in the jet stream potential bringing cold weather and wintry precipitation.

"There’s a renewed chance of our weather turning much colder into the second week of February with the jet stream expected to sink south across the country allowing for a potential blocking high to develop across the northwest," he said.

"In such a scenario we would see an increased risk of colder weather with a chance of some wintry precipitation across some parts of the country. The origin of the colder airmass will determine where that risk is highest into next week," he told followers on social media.

"It’s worth stressing that for now this is just an advisory on what the potential outcome of the forecast could be, as indicated by recent updates in the weather models."

He urged people to keep an eye on up to date forecasts as things can change quickly.

In the meantime, he looks like it will remain quite mild.

Alan O'Reilly from Carlow Weather said: "Few asking about risk of cold next week, the ECMWF model says chances are very low at present. The bank holiday weekend a little showery but not too wet thankfully. Some uncertainty around Monday though and best of weather will be in South and East."

Met Éireann has not published it's forecast for the second week in February but it too predicts mild, albeit unsettled, weather over the next few days.

"The last of the rain will clear southern areas early tonight [Wednesday], and the rest of the night will be dry for most with long clear spells, with just the odd shower possible in the north. Some isolated mist and fog patches will form, most likely in southern parts, with winds decreasing mostly light and variable, still fresh westerly for a time in the north. Lowest temperatures of -2 to +3 degrees, coldest in Munster and south Leinster, with some frost and ice.

"Dry and chilly tomorrow morning [Thursday] with some hazy sunshine for a time. Cloud will increase from the west through the afternoon with patches of light rain or drizzle following, mainly over the western half of the country. There'll be some low cloud, mist and fog in the west and southwest later too. Highest afternoon temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees, though it'll become milder in the evening. Winds will increase mostly moderate southwesterly, becoming fresh in coastal parts of the west and northwest through the afternoon."

They predict that Thursday night will be "a mild and generally dull night with patches of light rain, drizzle and mist, most frequent in the west and northwest. Overnight temperatures generally of 8 to 11 degrees with moderate to fresh and gusty southwest winds, strong at times in the west and northwest."

Friday will be "a mostly dull day with patchy rain, drizzle and mist continuing with just a few breaks in the clouds developing. Towards the evening, the rain will turn more persistent in the west and northwest. Highest temperatures of 11
to 13 degrees in moderate to fresh southwest winds.

"Continuing dull and misty with further outbreaks of rain and drizzle [on Friday night]. Temperatures not falling below 6 to 10 degrees in mostly moderate south west to west winds.

"A mostly dull day with outbreaks of rain and drizzle [on Saturday]. Possibly turning brighter and colder in the north during the afternoon with isolated showers. Highest temperatures of 9 to13 degrees, mildest in the southeast, in light to moderate southwesterly winds.

"Plenty of cloud with further outbreaks of rain and drizzle [on Saturday night]. Lowest temperatures of 5 to 9 degrees generally."

Forecasters at Met Éireann say it will be "cloudy with outbreaks of rain and drizzle, becoming patchier from the south through the day [on Sunday] with some bright spells developing. Highest temperatures of 10 to 13 degrees generally with moderate to fresh and gusty west to southwest winds."

Beyond that and into next week, they foresee "little change into the start of next week, continuing mild in a mainly westerly airflow with rain and drizzle at times, mainly over the western half of the country."