Three favourites in General Election in Offaly but the devil could be in the detail when the counting begins

Fianna Fail is running two candidates and should top the poll with Tullamore Councillor Tony McCormack likely to be the first past the post. He is stepping into the breach left by Barry Cowen's departure to Europe but the party's vote is strong in Offaly and in the Tullamore Area in particular he should be the beneficiary.

Carol Nolan is the only sitting TD on the ballot paper and she has been elected twice, once as a Sinn Fein TD when Offaly was rolled in with parts of North Tipperary in 2016 and again in 2020 when Laois Offaly was brought back together for what now looks like the last time. She has strong support in the county and you would think she should be back for stint three in the Dail.

And despite Marcella Corcoran Kennedy losing her seat in 2020, Fine Gael's performance in the local elections this year suggests there is still strong support for the party in Offaly meaning John Clendennen should also be taking a seat in the Dail when it sits after the election.

And if it were all that easy, there'd be no need for the 65,000 voters in Offaly to cast their ballots today. But we are casting our votes and, if we've learned nothing else over the years, we know that elections are about as predictable as the Irish weather.

Whether it be geography, political leanings or the direction of the wind, we voters are an unpredictable lot and a significant number of us don't make up our minds until the pen is in our hand and the ballot paper is sitting there in front of us.

One major difference between this election and 2020 is the Offaly candidates in the field and where they are located.

In 2020, John Leahy and the late Ken Smollen proved to be significant vote getters. Between them they accounted for over 6,000 first preference votes which are now up for grabs. Those votes are likely to account for more than half a quota this time around.

Looking at transfers in 2020, the vast majority of their votes eventually ended up with Carol Nolan and ultimately propelled her well over the finish line with a thousand votes to spare. Will they go to the Independent TD as first preferences this time around? If they do, she will be in an even stronger position to get elected but while that might go in Carol Nolan's favour, what might work against her is a new Sinn Fein candidate in the field in Aoife Masterson.

After their vote collapsed in Offaly in the 2019 Local Elections, Sinn Fein came back strongly this year claiming three seats, one in each Local Electoral Area. How much of that vote went to Carol Nolan in the 2020 General Election when there was no Sinn Fein candidate in Offaly is impossible to tell but the re-emergence of Sinn Fein in the county could cut into the sitting TD's votes.

It's also worth noting that then Sinn Fein TD Brian Stanley topped the poll in some areas of Offaly in 2020 which could bode well for Aoife Masterson. She performed very strongly in a packed field in the Tullamore Electoral Area in the Local Elections earlier this year and the wider support for the party in the county could see her getting right into the hunt.

Another key factor in the election in Offaly is the geographical split of the candidates which is helpful for some but will be detrimental to others.

LIVE BLOG: General Election 2024 news and results from Offaly

Follow all the results, reaction and analysis from the Count Centre here in Birr as Offaly votes are counted to elect three TDs for the 2024 General Election

We will start in North Offaly where the people of the area have been crying out for a local TD for many years. John Foley, Eddie Fitzpatrick and Pippa Hackett have all come close in the past but the last TD elected in North Offaly was the late Ger Connolly and the wait for a TD in the area has now gone on since 1997.

In 2020, there was only one candidate from the North Offaly area on the ballot paper in Pippa Hackett but this time there are four to choose from and that ultimately could leave the area once again without a TD.

After not being selected by Fianna Fail for the General Election, Eddie Fitpatrick decided to run as an Independent this time having previously run as an Independent (2011) and for Fianna Fail (2016). He is a strong vote getter and received just shy of 2,000 votes in the Local Elections this year.

Fianna Fail instead selected first time councillor Claire Murray to run in the General Election and she should benefit from a strong party vote in the county. Fianna Fail returned eight County Councillors in the Local Elections, narrowly missing out on another, and that strong vote across the county could see the party return two TDs.

Fergus McDonnell is running for Independent Ireland and as the only Edenderry candidate on the ballot paper, he should receive a large number of votes in the town.

Pippa Hackett finished sixth in a five seat Laois Offaly constituency in 2020 but the poor performance of the Green Party in the Local Elections would suggest that vote has lessened.

Whoever is the last one standing of these four candidates in North Offaly after the elimintations begin, assuming transfers stay in the area, could be in with a shout but this looks more like a case of too many candidates pulling from the one pool again crushing any hope people in the area have of electing a TD.

The field is not so packed in South Offaly this time around but in a strange quirk, the two leading candidates in Carol Nolan and John Clendennen are just a couple of miles apart. Will this hurt them? Only time will tell but between them they will be hoping to take the majority of votes available from Moneygall to the Blue Ball. Mike Boylan is also in the field in South Offaly and will do well in his native Banagher but he only received 483 first preference votes in the Local Election so his chances would have to be described as slim.

In 2020, there was a bigger field of heavy hitters running in South Offaly with Carol Nolan, Peter Ormond, Marcella Corcoran Kennedy and John Leahy all running. While the population is lower in this area, there are more than enough votes available for both to make a strong showing. John Clendennen will also be hoping to retain the huge vote received by Neil Fieghery in the Tullamore Area and by Noel Cribbin and Liam Quiinn in the Edenderry Area  in the Local Election

After years of not having a TD, Tullamore could potentially elect two this time around. Tullamore has not elected a TD from the town since Pat Gallagher in 1992 but that will change this year and, like buses, after waiting around for ages for one, two could arrive together for the town in Tony McCormack and Aoife Masterson. Another Tullamore name on the ballot is Maureen Ward who is running for Aontu and it will be interesting to see how she fares on her first time seeking election.

Having said all of the above, the more likely outcome after a close battle at times is Tony McCormack, Carol Nolan and John Clendennen being elected to represent Offaly but there could be a real fight for the last seat with Aoife Masterson, Eddie Fitzpatrick and Claire Murray in particular likely to be very much in the hunt.

Bookies still have three clear favourites to take seats in Offaly in General Election with voting underway

LIVE: General Election 2024 news and results from Offaly

Follow all the results, reaction and analysis from the Count Centre here in Birr as Offaly votes are counted to elect three TDs for the 2024 General Election