OPINION (AN COLÚN): Ireland needs something different but is swimming against the global wave

SOME are interpreting the Donald Trump victory as part of a 2024 global wave against incumbents beset by a number of issues, including housing and cost of living crises.
In the UK the Tories' big majority was reduced to not far off the lowest number of seats since the party began about two hundred years ago. England's severe shortage of housing has made it the most difficult place in the developed world to find a home.
In Germany the popularity of the governing coalition has fallen off a cliff and big change looks to be on the way. The coalition has collapsed and a spring election is on the cards. Homelessness is a significant social issue, affecting about 607,000 people. The country is in a housing crisis, linked to the cost of building materials and rising labour costs. Surveys have shown that the things which most people in Germany are worried about include inflation, migration and expensive housing. Rents are skyrocketing.
Last June and July in France Macron's party performed badly in the parliamentary elections. Earlier in 2024 the French government called the housing situation in France an “emergency”. A two year streak of rapid inflation has left low and middle income families struggling to pay for essentials like fuel and food.
In South Korea the opposition won a major victory in the country's general election. “Soaring housing prices,” stated The Korea Times this week, “have contributed to the growing wealth gap within regions and social classes in the country.” There's a cost of living crisis as food and energy prices have soared.
In Japan the LDP party has held sway for most of the time since 1955. In October the LDP lost its parliamentary majority, causing an uncertain outlook for the world's fourth largest economy. The voters primarily punished the LDP because of its financial scandals. The rising rate of inflation didn't help either. A rising cost of living has come as a huge shock in a country which has been used to decades of stable prices. Japan also has a massive abandoned homes problem, because many people have moved from rural into urban areas.
Factoring all of these things in, is it little wonder that Kamala Harris, representing the incumbent government, lost as well?
In the US there has been a 30% increase in grocery prices and the average American is feeling increasingly crushed. A housing crisis in America means a big percentage of Americans cannot get a home of their own. Meanwhile they see a border policy that is in chaos, permitting too many people into their country and they get regularly lectured to about identity politics. When you are struggling to make ends meet, listening to sanctimonious, well-heeled commentators and politicians lecturing you about identity politics is something which sticks deeply in the craw.
As usual the Democrat party rolled out their celebrity supporters calling for people's votes. Some of these celebrities were paid millions of dollars to make their public endorsements. It's incredible that the Democrats believed that such a spectacle would be a good way of courting the blue collar vote.
To add insult to injury those who criticise some of the sanctimonious posturing of the Democrats are labelled populists or far right. There's nothing far right about wanting a decent wage and a fair system. There's nothing populist about being in possession of your critical faculties and discernment and being able to see where the government is not doing a good job, where the system is letting you down.
Meanwhile in Ireland it would seem that we are an outlier, in the sense that we are not following the trend of other western countries where incumbent governments are being replaced or are under threat. Recent polls show that the preferred form of government will be a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael coalition with perhaps a smattering of Independents. We have a housing and homelessness crisis, a cost of living crisis; our handling of immigration is often justly criticised; and identity politics frequently abandons common sense. These issues matter greatly to people but unfortunately our main opposition party has made miscalculations and has been beset by scandals. Perhaps Sinn Féin's biggest miscalculation was its stance on the Referendums on Family and Care last March. It was an opportunity to stand up for traditional values and common sense, to significantly differentiate itself from the governing parties. If it had done so it's possible that the party would be in a much stronger position now. It's because of this significant weakening of the main opposition party that the General Election campaign feels somewhat lacklustre and missing a spark. With the most likely result being the return of the FF / FG coalition, this is an outcome which will reduce the possibility of people getting the change that they want and deserve. In this lacklustre scenario, I look with envy at a country like Canada where there's a vibrant opposition (the Conservative Party) led by an intelligent and skilled politician, Pierre Poilievre.