Improving Offaly on the brink of National Football League safety

AN improving Offaly are on the brink of safety in Division 3 of the National Football League. A point in next Sunday's closing round at home to Limerick in Tullamore will assure Division 3 football next season but even a defeat may not prove fatal – Offaly will only be relegated if they lose and if Wicklow surprise Antrim in Belfast and any other combination of results will keep them up.

Offaly will not be giving one iota of attention to the game up north and will be only concentrating on beating Limerick next Sunday.

Wicklow's hard fought win over Limerick last Sunday may have created a trapdoor for Offaly in the event of things going wrong for them in Tullamore. The fact that Antrim are not out of relegation trouble means that they will be fully focused on winning on home turf. If Offaly beat Limerick and Antrim lose to Wicklow, the Ulster side will be back in the basement grade and that would be a disaster for them.

Offaly are still on delicate ground and it has been such a topsy turvy league for them that if they lost, few would be surprised if Wicklow did pull it out of the fire in Corrigan Park and put them down.

Offaly, however, are in the happy position of having their fate in their own hands and if they lose to Limerick, they will have only themselves to blame for relegation. Limerick are already relegated and have little to play for other than pride. Expect them to give it their best shot and to fight for everything but the stakes are infinitely higher for Offaly and that is a factor.

Offaly have done well to turn it around after a nightmare start, as they lost their opening four games. They suffered defeats to Westmeath, Antrim, Clare and Down and this left them staring relegation in the face. Once the league fixtures were released last year, it was always possible that Offaly would lose those four opening games, especially as there was a new manager at the helm in Declan Kelly and there would be an inevitable rocky bedding in period.

Those defeats, however, piled pressure on management and players. Declan Kelly came under unwarranted early scrutiny from a small but vociferous section of supporters but there was sufficient grounds for concern.

Offaly really should have picked up points in those first four games. They should have got at least a draw against Antrim and they should have got the win at home to Clare, throwing away a nine point lead and then blasting a last minute penalty over the bar to win it in injury time. They also competed well against Down while they were very much second best against Westmeath, even though they weren't that far away.

Their performances in those four games, however, have served them well and the fact that their scoring difference is so good compared to the other two relegation contenders is a huge help. Offaly's scoring difference is +10 points, Antrim's is -15 and Wicklow's is -45. It means that Offaly will be safe if three teams tie on four points. That will happen if Offaly draw and Wicklow beat Antrim – in that scenario Wicklow will be gone as they won't be bridging that 55 point scoring difference with Offaly.

The encouraging thing for Offaly is that they have been improving the whole time. Last Saturday's draw in Sligo was not an improvement in terms of football but it was still a step forward and a good result. The conditions were dreadful and Offaly had to show real character to draw, 1-10 to 0-13. They were two points behind playing against a stiff wind with fourteen minutes left but held the home side scoreless from then on as points from Keith O'Neill and Nigel Dunne (free) secured a draw.

In the wind up, Offaly were happy with the draw. They completely dominated the closing exchanges and missed good chances but Sligo sub Keelan Cawley was wide with a last gasp chance to win it for them – it was a very good chance but Sligo people in my vicinity immediately remarked that the wrong man had the ball and they were right as it tailed wide at the left hand post.

A defeat would have been a dreadful pill for Offaly to swallow but it could have happened and it has been that type of league for them. A win would have left Offaly safe and they really should not be on a relegation tight rope going into the final round.

Another performance in the vein of their most recent ones should be enough for them on Sunday. They have been playing generally well in their last few matches, apart from that shocking last quarter collapse against Clare, and their confidence is improving the whole time.

Offaly's improved form can be traced to them showing more faith in their younger brigade of 2021 All-Ireland U-20 football champions. Captain Lee Pearson has been playing consistently well while Cormac Egan has been a revelation since moving to wing back. It had not been happening for the Tullamore flier in attack. His runs were not quite right - though some of this was down to players not releasing the ball quickly, he was not getting on the ball often enough and was in danger of being left off the team. He has been sensational at wing back. As expected, he is flourishing with the freedom of the half back line, the opportunity it gives him to burst forward at pace but it is deeper than that. He has also been excellent defensively, both in his tackling and his ability to stop players without fouling.

He has given Offaly a powerful new attacking focus from there. John Furlong has adapted to county football with the efficiency that we expected and is also doing well on the half back line while Jack Bryant and Keith O'Neill have taken advantage of their chances in the attack. Both have been playing very well and their confidence is growing from the faith that management is showing in them. Cathal Flynn did very well off the bench on Saturday and is very nearly ready for a starting place in the attack while another talented young player Morgan Tynan has not featured on the panel since playing in Belfast but his chance will come again once he sticks with it.

Declan Hogan's return from injury has also helped. He has been very steady in defence, almost always doing the right thing while a newcomer Aidan Bracken has settled in well at the back – the Ballycommon man was a good minor and U-20 a few years ago but didn't make the next step. Declan Kelly got him on board this year and he has been doing well at corner back.

Eoin Carroll has also settled back in very well after coming back onto the squad following an extended career break in Australia. Now in the veteran stages of his career, the doubts about his ability to get back at this level were legitimate ones but he has been rock solid at midfield, alongside Peter Cunningham. Offaly have not been spectacular in this sector but Carroll and Cunningham have been working very hard and they are very much holding their own.

Offaly's improvement means that there is new optimism about their prospects. They are away to Laois in the first round of the Leinster Senior Football Championship later in April and they have something to build on. Retaining their Division 3 status, however, is very important. Apart from a one year stint in Divisions 4 and 2, Offaly have been a classic division 3 team for over a decade now.

They need to stay up there and then try and mount a promotion charge next season. It would be disastrous if they go down next Sunday and that is by no means an impossibility. They remain capable of bad days and they can't take anything for granted against Limerick. It is a pressure game but these ones are character building and Offaly really should be able to do their part of the bargain on Sunday – and ensuring that people don't have to keep an anxious eye on what is happening up north.