How many votes will an Offaly candidate need to be elected to Dail Eireann?

Voters are going to the polls in Offaly today and for the first time the county is a stand alone constituency. 

But when the dust has settled and all the votes are counted, how many votes will it take for a candidate to be elected.

The electorate (the number of people registered to vote) in the constituency of Offaly is a little lower than expected.

It is 62,931. Now, we know not everyone will vote, so the total number of votes to be counted will be much lower than that.

The turnout has been falling in recent elections – 2011 turnout in Laois-Offaly was 70.7%, in Offaly (with a slice of north Tipperary added) in 2016 it was 67.7% and last time out in the Laois-Offaly constituency it was 63.2%.

It is hard to know what it will be today but if it is 65%, then about 41,000 people will have voted. T

hat generates a quota – the number of votes required to win a seat – of 10,226. 

If the number that vote is above 41,000, the quota will rise slightly and vice versa but around 10,200 votes looks like it will be the magic number.