Ireland to miss renewable energy targets up to 2030, Cabinet told

Ireland will fall short of renewable energy targets up to 2030, the Cabinet heard on Monday.

The State met its “baseline” renewable energy target of 16% in 2024 but is projected to fall short of interim targets in 2025 (27.6%) and 2027 (33.6%), according to a memo brought to Cabinet.

The overall ambition is a renewable energy share of 43% in 2030.

A Government spokesman said: “Ireland will fall short of our renewable energy targets up to 2030.

“These targets are based on the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption in the electricity, heat and transport sectors.”

Reacting to the development, Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman said it was a “consequence of this Government’s lack of focus on renewables” and called for the publication of the Government’s projections.

Speaking to the Press Association, he added: “This Government isn’t going to reach the renewable energy targets for 2030 and now the Irish taxpayer is going to pay a price.”

A 2025 report from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) and the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) estimated that the cost of missing the targets could range between 200 million euros and 4.4 billion euros.

A Government spokesman said further analysis of available “options” is being undertaken, including paying a financial contribution to renewable energy projects in other EU member states in return for a “statistical allocation” of the energy produced.

He added: “The priority will still remain supporting domestic renewable generation.

“Further analysis is going to be undertaken to assess the potential value and cost effectiveness of these mechanisms.”

Mr O’Gorman said the energy financing mechanism referenced by the Government will form part of the cost of not meeting targets.

He said: “The cost of not meeting these particular renewable energy targets could be as high as 4.4 billion euro, and instead of investing this money domestically to support renewables, this money now has to be transferred back to the EU and it’s actually going to benefit those countries that have met their renewable targets – and Spain and Denmark are two really good examples there.

“The Government needs to get serious about renewables.

“For example, it needs to support the development of the ports that will be needed to service the building of offshore turbines, and it needs to allow further development of battery storage so renewable energy that’s generated in times of low demand can actually be stored and used in times of high demand.”

The same IFAC and CCAC report estimated that the cost of missing targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation could range between three and 16 billion euros, while underperforming in the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Regulation could cost between 0.5 and 5.8 billion euros.

That projects a worst-case scenario of spending up to 26 billion euros.

Mr O’Gorman said he was hopeful the Government would examine joint investment projects with other EU countries as an attempt to bridge the gap.

He said: “At least if we’re doing some joint venture with another EU member state, we might get some benefit in the longer term from the money we’re putting into that.”

Mr O’Gorman added that it was important for the Government to state clearly “how far we’re going to miss our interim targets” and the 2030 goal.

He also said it should estimate the final cost, adding: “Are they going to start buying the credits now, or are they going to wait until the end – because most economic analysis suggests the cost of these credits is going to go up.”