Labour's electoral bounce unlikely to last
SOME salient truths form a background to the recent spate of opinion polls.
The Labour bounce in the "Irish Times'' opinion poll, which made it the biggest party in the State in percentage terms, is unlikely to last unless there is a sea change about to happen in Irish politics. Change is afoot on the Irish political landscape. That's for sure.
However, an analysis of a series of poll figures would suggest that Fine Gael will still be a bigger party than Labour after the next election.
Despite the significant rise in the polls, it is unlikely that Labour will be able to get its electoral act together in key constituencies where, traditionally, its organisation has been poor and there is an absence of good candidates.
Labour's electoral bounce may well be similar to what the Liberal Democrats received in the initial stages of the British general election, only to see it fade away as time progressed.
Although Labour, then, will be a strong force in the next election, it is highly unlikely to eclipse Fine Gael in terms of seat numbers.
That would require a turnaround of sensational proportions. Right now, for instance, an analysis of the constituencies makes if difficult to see where Fine Gael could possibly lose seats. It is not difficult to pick out constituencies where they could make gains. Labour, too, would undoubtedly make gains.
In both cases, Fianna Fail could be the loser.
The latest opinion poll, "The Sunday Business Post'' Red C poll, brought relief for Fine Gael while indicating that the Labour surge has continued.
Fine Gael was up three points to 33 per cent, showing that it was back as the most popular party and the obvious leading player in the next Government.
Time will tell if the boost was a reaction by voters to the leadership heave against Enda Kenny which put the party centre-stage in the media for a week or so. Labour, at 27 per cent, gained five points, coming in ahead of Fianna Fail, which retained its base at 24 cent.
All this points to the obvious reality that, first and foremost, Fianna Fail will lose the election, sustaining a hammering from an angry and unforgiving electorate. Based on the current state of play in the polls, that will make the way clear for a Fine Gael-Labour Government, with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore as Tanaiste.
What was most surprising about the performance of the various party leaders in the Red C poll was not so much the poor showing of Kenny and Brian Cowen.
It was, surely, that no Opposition leader, at the height of a grim economic recession, where Fianna Fail's fortunes have taken a nosedive, cannot even remotely secure the support of even close too half the electorate.
Gilmore secured 40 per cent, followed by Kenny at 28 per cent and Cowen on 16 per cent. When, in relative terms, a mere 40 per cent is the highest rating any Opposition leader and potential Taoiseach can secure, then there must be a great deal of disillusionment among voters out there with politics generally.
This could suggest a potential level of volatility among voters and could lead to shifts in popularity when policies will emerge as important as personalities, given the scale of the recession and its impact on people at every level right across the country.
In that context the inevitable question is being asked: is Labour getting away with it on a massive scale, to the degree that is rivalling Fianna Fail in the old days of opposition when the ethos was to oppose everything and commit to nothing?
.Labour has done a spectacular U-turn in relation to the legislation to ban stag hunting which surfaced again in the Dail this week.
The Bill is directed at the Meath-based Ward Union Hunt, and, inevitably, it provoked strong opposition from Fianna Fail backbenchers from that and neighbouring counties.
By Monday night, Independent TDs supporting the Government, Kerry South's Jackie Healy-Rae and Tipperary North's Michael Lowry, had indicated that they would not be supporting the Government.
The argument was that the Green Party was against rural Ireland. Party leader and Minister for the Environment John Gormley was the Minister behind the Bill, so it would not get their support.
So where does that leave their arrangement to support the Government in return for constituency projects? Surely the deal must be in grave jeopardy, with its obvious consequences for the Government's majority? Or is the Government prepared to allow the two Independents an a la carte approach to issues?
Clarity is surely required from all concerned, and the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, has some serious decisions to make about his support base in the Dail.
As for Labour, Gormley criticised the party for its change of heart on the issue, quoting from remarks made by party TDs in the past. But perhaps the most damning comments came from the Irish Animal Welfare Forum.
It described Labour's opposition "as one of the most cynical strokes ever'', citing an email from Labour TD Tommy Broughan last December promising to support the legislation.
Outspoken Independent TD Finian McGrath also challenged Labour. Declaring that he would be voting for the legislation, he castigated Labour for its support "for the wealthy elite that find it fund chasing stags across school yards''.
Labour's response was entirely inadequate. It said that the best way to deal with the Ward Hunt was to insist, if necessary, on strengthening the licensing regime introduced by a former Labour Minister, Michael D Higgins.
Labour described the legislation as a Green Party "fig leaf'', making it clear that the party was not prepared to throw the Greens a Dail lifeline. And to think that was the kind of Opposition tactics that Labour used to castigate Fianna Fail for.
It is extraordinary that the issue could cause such controversy at a time when the country is in such a wretched economic state. Nobody is denying that the issue is important to those directly involved. But, my goodness, when compared to our massive unemployment rate, it pales into insignificance.
Labour, meanwhile, could be on a high-risk strategy with voters. Clearly, its policy of opposition for opposition's sake is boosting its place in the polls right now.
But when voters become more discerning about policy matters, will they turn on Labour? Was the party wise to do such a spectacular U-turn on what is, admittedly, at the end of the day, a small piece of legislation? Or do voters care any more?
They may see Gilmore's strong performance in the Dail as a sign that he is the best leader and best qualified to be Taoiseach, although with a relatively low personal rating of 40 per cent.
Labour says that it is opposed to water and property taxes.
It is far from clear where the party would inflict the necessary economic pain on voters if it made it into government. That pain is inevitable, given the dreadful state of the country. There could be no avoidance of it in any circumstances.
The Government has to find savings of 3 billion euro in the next Budget. That is the extent of pain which will confront us at the end of this year. Labour has rightly said that it did not cause the economic mess.
And it has rightly castigated Fianna Fail-led Governments for doing so.
But whoever replaces Fianna Fail, and it is, obviously, likely to be Fine Gael and Labour, they will have to continue to sort out this sorry mess. That is where we are.
Giving the impression that there is some painless economic route out of all of this is just not good enough
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