Kenny pulls a political master stroke
Enda Kenny's survival as Fine Gael leader was a master political stroke. He will now lead the party into the next general election.
The polls suggest that he will be Taoiseach despite his relatively low personal rating. Fianna Fail will lose the next election rather than Fine Gael and Labour winning it.
There could be echoes of the 1973 election when Fianna Fail was consigned to the Opposition benches after 16 years of uninterrupted rule.
Liam Cosgrave, Fine Gael leader, led that Coalition. He had survived a heave that never quite got off the ground some months earlier.
Cosgrave supported the draconian Offences Against the State act in the face of a paramilitary threat. Some within his party opposed it and were about to dump Cosgrave as leader until bombs went off in Dublin and the political scenario changed dramatically.
Fine Gael did a rapid U-turn and supported Cosgrave and the legislation. Kenny will look to the Cosgrave example no doubt. And there is a family connection. Cosgrave appointed his late father, Henry Kenny, as a parliamentary secretary, now known as a Minister of State.
Young Enda Kenny won the subsequent by-election in 1975, giving the Cosgrave Government a big boost. Last week's heave against Kenny was ill-timed and politically silly.
What was Richard Bruton at? And what was his supporters at?
Responding to a negative opinion poll is never a good idea at any time. And given Kenny's track record in electoral matters it was deeply unfair.
Being the alternative Taoiseach is not an easy job at any time. Had Bertie Ahern not won the 1997 general election, there would probably have been a heave against him as Fianna Fail leader.
In fact, Ahern was a poor leader of the Opposition, but all that was forgotten when he got into power and turned out to be most successful Taoiseach in electoral terms since De Valera.
His record is now under critical scrutiny in terms of his stewardship of the economy. What of Kenny? Lampooned by sections of the media when he got the job, he confounded his critics by bringing the party back from the brink of oblivion.
It was not easily done. Kenny is at his best when dealing with people on a one-to-one level. He rebuilt the party by doing the so-called chicken supper circuit, galvanising the organisation and restoring morale.
That does not translate into public popularity or confidence on the part of the electorate that he could be a competent and efficient Taoiseach. But, then, has the public any confidence at all in politicians any more?
Is Kenny no more or no less than the victim of the mood that politicians are all the same, at the end of the day?
It is, of course, unfair. The vast majority of politicians are decent and honourable people. But the dreadful state of the country today is because of bad political management. Hence all politicians, by and large, are regarded with suspicion by the electorate.
Every leader of Fine Gael who followed Garret FitzGerald has had a problem clicking with voters. It could be argued that FitzGerald's timing was very lucky indeed. His opponent was Charlie Haughey, a very divisive figure in Irish politics.
FitzGerald led the party when Ireland was changing. Donogh O'Malley's introduction of free education had led to something akin to a social revolution.
There was a new generation of voters with liberal views on social issues and anxious to take Ireland out of that dour Dev-inspired era. FitzGerald was the right man in the right place at the right time.
He had it easier than Kenny. The Dail was not broadcast in those days, so his performance was not open to the same scrutiny that was the lot of those who followed him. Kenny will pick his frontbench next week.
Laois-Offaly is likely to lose out. Charlie Flanagan and Olwyn Enright were prominent members of the front bench under Kenny. One is likely to be retained, perhaps Flanagan because he was a late and surprising convert to the Bruton heave. Olwyn Enright was among the gang of nine who walked on to the plinth in Leinster House to call for Kenny's dismissal as leader. The condescending tone of that group of frontbenchers beggared belief.
Here was Kenny, who had helped to elect some of them, given his inspired revival of the party, confronted admittedly with the grim reality that, no more than other party leaders, he had failed to make the grade with the electorate, was about to be given his marching orders.
Did they really think that somebody who was elected to the Dail in 1975, and led the party with spectacular electoral success, was going to go quietly into the Mayo twilight?
What planet do these people live on?
Kenny handled the fallout from the heave in exemplary style. The return of Richard Bruton to the frontbench is an obvious move.
But it will be a chastened Richard Bruton who, if he wishes, returns to the frontbench. Retiring to the backbenches might not be a good career move.
Time moves on. At the end of the day, in political life, everybody and anybody can be done without. Kenny's choice of finance spokesman is expected to be Michael Noonan.
Richard Bruton could take some advice from the career of one Michael Noonan. Noonan was a brilliant frontbench spokesman. He seemed to have all the qualities which would have made an equally brilliant party leader.
In fact, he was a disaster when he ousted John Bruton.
Was Richard Bruton not aware of that piece of relatively recent political history when he made his move against End Kenny? And were those who supported him not aware of that reality?
Kenny summed it up when he put the Fine Gael leadership issue in context. He said: "It does seem to be a historic Fine Gael trait that we take on board our opponents' criticisms of us individually or collectively, and turn those criticisms into sticks to beat ourselves with.''
he went on to say that opinion polls that went up and down from period to period were over-interpreted and often misunderstood.
"Instead of standing tall and arguing our case, too often self doubt and lack of faith undermines,'' he added. Kenny was right. Those who opposed him were wrong. And that group included Laois-Offaly's Olwyn Enright and Charlie Flanagan. Flanagan has been a highly impressive performer in Justice. Enright has been an equally robust performer.
Flanagan will probably survive in a diminished role. The Justice portfolio is likely to go to Alan Shatter. Olwyn Enright is likely to go to the backbenches. If she does, she will have brought her political demotion on herself.
This was a silly and politically puerile move by people within Fine Gael who underestimated Kenny.
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Wednesday 08 February 2012
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