Cowen's leadership not under immediate threat
THERE is no immediate threat to Brian Cowen's leadership of Fianna Fail. The criticism he faced this week was inevitable, given the party's poor showing in opinion polls.
If matters get really bad, there could be a heave born out of sheer panic. And it might well go nowhere.
But that's for the future. This week it was Mr Cowen's job to listen to his backbenchers and take on board what they had to say during his summer break. He has to be proactive, leading from the front, seizing policy initiatives rather than just reacting to events.
He must lead without looking over his shoulders at the opinion polls. Anyway, the battle for the polls may be over. Meltdown in a general election may now be inevitable. But it will be truly inevitable unless this Taoiseach and Government show leadership.
When the ship is heading towards the iceberg any course of action that might rescue it is worth embarking on.
But this Government does not grasp that.
This week, for instance, the Dail adjourned for its long summer holidays, indicating the breathtaking detachment of the political classes, mainly the Government, from the people.
Never mind the work that has to be done on important legislation, never mind the level of accountability that is demanded of the Government by the people via parliament. This Government has a contempt for parliament. And, by extension, it has a contempt for people.
The high salaries, the Mercs, foreign travel, the good life over the years of the bogus Celtic Tiger, have left a bloated and indifferent political class. The main fault is with the Government. It cannot even manage a routine matter like Oireachtas reform.
Mr Cowen will lead on through the summer and into the autumn. There is every likelihood that he will lead the party into the next general election.
But if there is not a change of strategy, Fianna Fail could hurtle into political oblivion, a depleted and battered party destined for a long stretch in opposition.
There is no obvious replacement to Mr Cowen. The Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan, is the Cabinet's big success. He has health issues to address and he is to be wished well in meeting those challenges on a personal and political level.
The Taoiseach's two putative successors, Dermot Ahern and Micheal Martin, sat around the Cabinet during that period of profligacy.
They share the blame for the country's sorry state. And there is no indication that they would perform any better than Mr Cowen.
The Government this week escaped the censure of the Dail, and accountability to the people, by voting itself a long parliamentary holiday.
But the day of reckoning will come. Some of the observations by backbenchers this week were born out of a certain resentment at not being promoted. But most were relevant and valid. The Taoiseach and his Ministers should take what was said on board.
Mr Cowen is not alone in this. His largely weak and ineffectual Cabinet must also play their part in rescuing the country and the party.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael's Charlie Flanagan is still alive and well, politically. He survived the cull of the party's front bench, although he lost the Justice portfolio to Alan Shatter. Mr Shatter had gone the distance with Enda Kenny in the leadership heave and was duly rewarded.
Mr Flanagan, a veteran political warrior, would have correctly guessed his fate long before the new front bench was announced. The Laois-Offaly TD was given Mr Shatter's old portfolio of children.
While it will not carry the same profile as Justice, it is an important spokesmanship. With a referendum on children's rights due, and a seemingly never-ending focus on the neglect of vulnerable children by the State, he will have a full workload.
His departure from Justice is to be regretted. Richard Bruton, in Finance, and Mr Flanagan were the two best performers on the old front bench. In terms of work-rate and parliamentary performance, both were consistently impressive.
Both outshone their opposite numbers in the other opposition parties and were an effective match for the Ministers they marked. But politics is a cruel trade.
Mr Flanagan backed the Bruton challenge, albeit in a low-key manner. He duly paid the price when Mr Kenny won the day.
However, the fact that he has survived as a member of the front bench is hugely significant.
Unlike others, who were consigned to the backbenches and are out of the loop this side of the next general election, he remains a player.
Olwyn Enright, meanwhile, made it known to Mr Kenny that she did not want to be considered for a front bench position for personal family reasons.
She might have had difficulty surviving had she remained in the fray. She would have carried the disadvantage that she was one of the front benchers who walked out to the Dail plinth with other colleagues to publicly challenge Mr Kenny's leadership.
Unlike Mr Flanagan, who backed Mr Bruton late in the day, she was part of a head-on confrontation with her party leader to whom she owed her front bench position. Would Mr Kenny have retained her and had two front bench representatives from the Laois-Offaly constituency? It is doubtful.
Mind you, in the case of Cork South Central, he retained Simon Coveney and promoted constituency colleague Deirdre Clune to the front bench. Ms Enright was a tenacious and hardworking front bench spokesperson.
She will have her opportunity to make a comeback in the long-term when her family responsibilities are less onerous. We will hear of her again on the frontline of Fine Gael politics.
On paper, Mr Kenny has a formidable front bench in the aftermath of the abortive heave.Michael Noonan's Lazarus-like comeback to the Finacne portfolio has given him a new lease of political life and put down a marker that the gloves are well and truly off when it comes to the Government and, indeed, Labour. Mr Noonan is a tough and experienced politician.
True, he was a poor party leader who could not cut it with the public.
Unlike Mr Kenny, he could never point to the rebuilding of the party and the achievement of good election results as part of his achievements. But he is to be reckoned with as a Dail and media performer.
He has come through the crucible of politics, experiencing the highs and lows. He was a member of the FG-Labour Government during the recession of the 1980s, when he held the Justice portfolio under Garret FitzGerald,
That Government restored a measure of credibility and honesty to politics in the aftermath of the Haughey GUBU years.
But it failed hopelessly on the economy. There were deep ideological differences between Fine Gael and Labour at that time which rendered the Government incapable of grappling with the economy.
It is salutary to note at this juncture that there should never again be a repeat of that inertia in any future FG-Labour Government. As Minister for Health, Noonan made a dog's dinner of the Hepatitis C scandal.
It was a bad time for him. But, one presumes, he has learned from it.
Mr Noonan has nothing to lose and everything to gain by bringing his experience to bear on his new post. As for Mr Bruton, he will perform well in the Enterprise, Jobs and Economic Planning portfolio.
The Noonan-Bruton combination should prove to be very effective indeed in the areas of the economy and jobs.
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Tuesday 22 May 2012
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